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A quick look at the relative economic strength of the combatants in WWI may illustrate why the war played out as it did. [Read More]

Comments

Shaun Harvey

You have done a good job but I have a couple of queries with regards to your logic. The first being with regards to Austria Hungary's economy. The peasentry was large but it must be remembered that the poorest region in the Empire (Galicia) was also the main source of oil for the Central powers with the exception of its short time under Russian domination. Most of the workers in this industry did so to suplement their life as subsistence farmers so it is difficult to qualify a member of the popuation as specifically subsistence in their nature.

2. Do you have the figures for the Ottoman Empire?

Dave Tufte

1) Well, obviously, this is a back-of-the-envelope sort of calculation. I lifted the figures on GDP and percent at subsistence from the text. The text emphasized the inability of the developed parts of the economy to mobilize the potential in the subsistence part, but didn't do anything with the numbers - so I tried to fill in the blanks. Frankly, this is the first source I ever saw that discussed the idea that Germany was not as rich as it seemed.

Having said that, my method is pretty simple. So, if you wanted to make this sort of adjustment, you'd need some sense of how big the portion of population involved in this industry was, and how much the subsistence level should be adjusted for that portion. My guess is that the portion is small (Galicia has never been densely populated), and that the adjustment for unskilled workers in what was then a minor industry wouldn't be big either.

2) I have no data for the Ottoman Empire. The text I drew from has a summary chapter from which I drew this data. There is a more specific chapter on the Ottoman Empire though - which I didn't consult. I think it would start out as a smaller value than even Austria-Hungary, and then have to be marked down for an additional factor. The book emphasizes that the Ottoman Empire was not at all economically integrated: 1) there was no national rail net to allow the collection of resources, and 2) at the local level the terrain made the collection of resources at ports very limited beyond a short distance from the city. I'm speculating here, but my guess is that the Turks were only able to partially mobilize those parts of Thrace and the coastal areas of modern Turkey that were easily accessible.

Given the problem that the Austro-Hungarians had with Serbia (giving some sense of its effective GDP), the fact that collections of countries smaller than Serbia routinely beat up the Ottomans, and that the Italians manhandled them in 1911-2, my guesstimate is an effective Ottoman GDP in the 5-15 range.

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