There are not many people I will defer to on business cycles; James Hamilton of Econbrowser is one of them.
Last week he upgraded his view of the economy from sour to neutral:
Let's admit it-- the other shoe is not yet dropping.
I'm not happy with the U.S. economy now, or over the last 3-4 quarters. But, the longer this soft period (or growth recession) persists without a devolution into full-blown recession, the more likely it is that we will be talking about the soft landing of 2006-7 when 2008 rolls around.
But, these sort of predictions are dicey, so do check back in 6-12 months. I've been wrong before (as have all business cycle forecasters).
Do keep in mind that Econbrowser also upgraded their recession probability last week, but the key thing to look at is the last figure of the post: we are still pretty low on the graph, run-ups in the probability of a recession are very dramatic when there really is a recession, and small run-ups that don't lead to a recession are fairly common.