My money is still on Bhagwati.
But, I've been wrong the last 3 years. (That's OK, I was wrong for 8 years before Vernon Smith got one - although everyone thought I was crazy when I said that in 1994).
I haven't had time to poke around and see what others are predicting (here's Thomson, here's Mankiw's). My A list is:
- Alchian
- Barro
- Baumol
- Bhagwati
- Cass
- D. Diamond
- P. Diamond
- Dixit
- Fama
- French
- G. Grossman
- Hall
- Hansen
- Harberger
- Hart
- Helpman
- Holmstrom
- Jorgenson
- Kreps
- Krugman
- Mortenson
- Obsfeldt
- Pissarides
- Rogoff
- P. Romer
- Sargent
- Shell
- Sims
- Thaler
- Tirole
- Tullock
- Williamson
My B list is:
- Bernheim
- Card
- Feldstein
- Goldin
- S. Grossman
- Krueger
- Milgrom
- Peltzman
- Wilson
My C list is mostly younger folks:
- Demsetz
- Maskin
- Murphy
- Newey
- Rajan
- Rabin
- P. Romer
- Shleifer
- Shiller
Obviously, there are a lot of combinations of people from different lists who are possible, but this ought to cover the next 10 years nicely (although everyone forgot about Robert Aumann a few years back).
