Dissecting the Utah Voucher Referendum Vote

Who voted for and against vouchers in Utah?

There's a lot of cognitive dissonance here.

Utah is 70% Mormon, and Mormons tend to be conservative and Republican. Vouchers are an issue that they should be in favor of.

On the other hand, Utah is the most theocratic state in the union. The religious infiltration in public schools here would turn the stomachs of many Americans from other states (just as the secular human infiltration into Utah schools infuriates Mormons). So, if the pubic schools here are comparable to parochial schools elsewhere, it seems plausible that the Mormon supermajority would be against a voucher rule that might change that.

There is also an urban/rural issue. Utah's self-image is that it is a rural state, but the truth is that it is highly urban, with 3/4 of the population living in the Salt Lake City/Provo/Ogden metropolitan area. Those urban voters already have lots of school choices, so there should be a base there interested in seeing them made more affordable.

What we got in the vote was the polar opposite of most of these points. This suggests that vouchers are an issue that gets emotional rather than fact-based votes. That's probably not a surprise.

• Salt Lake County: Now less than half Mormon and more liberal than the rest of the state voted 2 to 1 against vouchers. This vote is consistent with the liberal position supporting public schools, but inconsistent with the discomfort that this local majority has with the statewide Mormon supermajority. Weber county can probably be lumped in here too. Oddly, this is the area that of the state that is thickest with private schools, and in particular Catholic parochial schools.
• Utah and Davis Counties: These heavily Mormon suburbs of Salt Lake voted against vouchers but by slender majorities. This is a voice in support of a conservative position that is at odds with the facts on the ground that the Mormon-dominated public education system is under fire from immigrants to the state.
• Washington County: The traditional Mormon sunbird county for Utah had the highest vote for vouchers at 49%. This is even though it is filled with older, presumably more reactionary folks, beyond their school choice years, who are experiencing growth consistently amongst the highest in the country, largely fueled by people from outside the state. Again, this is a vote that is conservative, but not particularly pro-Mormon.
• Summit County: This is the heavily non-Mormon county of Park City and the surrounding resort communities. It's classic limousine liberal country, and it voted heavily against vouchers. Again, in support of the national position, but contrary to the facts on the ground where they try very hard to reduce Mormon influences on local schools.
• The Rural Counties: These places - which often have no private schools - voted heavily against vouchers. They have few private schools because there isn't an economical way to defray the fixed costs, yet they voted to avoid easing that burden even though it isn't at all clear that this measure would be enough to make a difference.

Utah's a strange place. The people who should be in favor of vouchers for humanist reasons are against them for reasons of national identification with their chosen political temperament, and the people who have a cynical local reason for being against them are instead in favor of them, once again due to alignment with their national political temperament.