12 Months Into the Recession
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has declared December 2007 as the most recent peak for the U.S. macroeconomy.
Hmmm.
That corresponds pretty well with when the national unemployment rate began to rise.
But ... there were large parts of the country where the economy did pretty well into the summer. So, I'm bothered a little bit about whether this date captures the idea that a recession is supposed to be pervasive. The real GDP tends to support my view.
FWIW: I think it's very interesting that the household survey of employment peaked a bit earlier, and the NBER mentioned this prominently: this is the series that many pundits judged as wrong in 2002-4 when it indicated that the economy was recovering normally.
N.B. It isn't unusual for the "official" announcement of the "official" peak to come several months after the fact - but 12 months is on the long side.
