It’s Sargent and Sims. Barro has got to be steaming.
I didn’t make any predictions this year (it was too embarrassing for me after the last two years).
But both Sargent and Sims were on my A list when I made predictions in 2009, 2008 2007, 2006, and 2005. I thought they might get the award as a pair, but I was more inclined to think that Sargent would get it with Barro, and Sims would get it with Hansen.
As a macroeconomist who’s done both applied and theoretical work, Sargent and Sims are two of the gods in my pantheon.
Now I know for sure that all the hours I spent reading Sargent (starting in 1985) and Sims (starting in 1988) were worth it.
This is proof positive that the positions they took — that we really didn’t know much at all about the relationships between macroeconomic variables — in those old Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Carnegie-Rochester conference proceedings (pretty much the most important proceedings I ever heard of) were right.