Matt Hood gave this quiz to a seminar I attended.*
The directions are to state an interval for each question that you are 95% sure contains the right answer. No using reference materials.
- How many countries are there in the U.N.?
- How many votes did Obama get in 2008?
- What year was the Battle of Waterloo?
- How many protons are in a gold atom?
- How many runs did the Giants score in the 2010 World Series?
- What’s the lowest temperature ever recorded in Alaska?
- What’s the population of Mississippi?
- How many miles it to the moon (on average)?
- What is the height of the Eiffel Tower?
- When did King Tut die?
Matt’s goal with this quiz is to motivate the idea that people are overconfident of what they know, as a lead in to how behavioral finance differs from conventional finance.
I knew the goal of the test was to “trick” me. And, I know how confidence intervals work. And yet the correct answers was only in 3 of the intervals I answered with.
* If you want the answers, e-mail me directly. That way I’m not blabbing Matt’s trade secrets.