I’ve been pushing the conclusions of the betting markets, as shown at Intrade, for predicting the outcome of the election.
There’s been a big change. Bettors are now calling Ohio to go for Romney:
This is what is required for a narrow Romney victory. Currently Intrade’s bettors are predicting a 275-263 Romney win in the electoral college.
N.B. Ohio shows up as bright red because I highlighted it to show the details at the bottom right. It’s actually the palest pink when you click on it.
BTW: Marginal Revolution reports that someone tried to manipulate the market on Intrade after last week’s debate. They go on to note, because there is money to be made, someone who tries to push the price one way or the other is offering up an arbitrage profit to serious traders, and may end up strengthening the conclusions of the market.