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Trent McBride

Are we looking at the same thing? I am on intrade's site now and both show Obama contract for both the US and Ohio as still above 50%, and neither have been below 50% since August.

David Tufte

I have no idea. All I know is that I peaked at it around Noon, and it had changed for the first time in about a week. What's shown is the screen capture I made at that time. As I write this at 10:30 PM MDT on Wednesday, it is still showing Ohio for Romney.

David Tufte

Now ... hmmm ... the map comes from a mashup that purports to show the Intrade data correctly. Perhaps it doesn't!

Kit Lloyd

As a corrollary, I took another look at the numbers from the most recent 8 quarters to see where Obama is sitting at, in terms of avg. real GDP growth. The most recent quarter of 1.3 has dragged his avg. rate down to 1.8, closer to the 1.4 threshold where incumbents have always lost.

Dave Tufte

Even though that result is from my class' project, I'm not very convinced of the result. I just don't think we have the holy grail for predicting election outcomes in macroeconomics.

Dave Tufte

BTW: Today's map does seem to confirm Trent's comment from yesterday. I think what may be going on is that the raw data is updated continuously, but the map itself is not.

So, today, they have Obama winning Ohio (and the election), but Romney picking up New Hampshire.

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