Bettors at Intrade are now saying Florida will go for Romney.
Assuming that comes to pass, Romney still needs 35 electoral votes. The most likely places to get them are Virginia and Colorado, and those two won’t be enough. He’ll need Ohio too.
Since last spring the story has been that there are 9 tossup states, and Romney has to win a bunch of them. Here’s where they currently sit according to Intrade:
| State | Votes | Romney Win Probability |
| North Carolina | 15 | 74% |
| Florida | 29 | 58% |
| Colorado | 9 | 50% |
| Virginia | 13 | 47% |
| Ohio | 18 | 40% |
| Iowa | 6 | 33% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 29% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 26% |
| Nevada | 6 | 26% |
Romney has 191 electoral votes locked up. These 9 states have 110 votes, and Romney needs 79 of them to win. The expected value from the bettors, a week after the first debate, is that he’ll get 53.
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