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mike shupp

It's a hard election to call. On paper, Obama looks ahead. BUT Obama voters are disproportionately young, black or hispanic, a/o low income -- and those are all groups with a history of low turnouts. Republican voters are older, whiter, more affluent -- and all those go with high turnout rates.

30-50 years ago this would not have mattered so much. There were lots of older white Democrats and still some older black Republicans. But party racial/social compositions have changed since Nixon's time and don't show signs of reverting. So the extent to which Obama can motivate his low voting supporters is crucial -- and at this point totally unpredictable.

My bet at this point ... I'll go for Obama with 288 electoral votes, or thereabouts. I don't quite see it as a "win" for Obama, so much as a loss for Romney. There isn't huge enthusiasm for Obama this time round, but Romney looks worse to many people, perhaps enough worse to motivate Democrats.


David Tufte

I'm inclined to agree with you ...

But I don't have much of a basis to go on. I'm living in a 70% Mormon town, and way too many people are heavily invested emotionally in Romney winning. Otherwise rational people in my circle just aren't that rational this election cycle.

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