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« Excel Tip # 23: Line Breaks In Formulas | Main | Elasticity of Carbon Dioxide and Economic Growth »

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Eli Rabett

Two mistakes. First the base for the temperature calculation should be the temperature of the Earth w/o greenhouse gases, ~255 K (also the temperature of the surface of the moon) not 0K, so the temperature difference is 0.7K/35K

Second, the effect of CO2 is not linear, but logarithmic so you have to use the logs of the mixing ratios,
[log(392)-long(315)]/log(392)

That gives an entirely different answer.

Best
Eli

David Tufte

1) I don't agree with your first point, but I'm willing to take it at face value. With your numbers, the elasticity comes up to be 0.08. This is far less sensitive than smokers are to change in the price of cigarettes.

2) The relationship may well be log-linear, but that isn't relevant to calculating elasticities. One could, and I'm guessing that you are, make the argument that the elasticity should be with respect to the (base 10) log of carbon dioxide concentration. Taking that at face value, you'd get an elasticity of 0.07.

Further, combining both of your issues, one would get an elasticity of 0.53. This is still quite inelastic. For example, it is somewhat more inelastic than say, the response of residential electricity demand to prices.

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