Scientists understand that coincidences are much more common than laypeople suspect. The latter read way too much into factoids that seem critical, but are in fact commonplace.
A grand set of these appeared in the July 27 Wall Street Journal in an op-ed piece by James Taranto entitled "With Trends Like These..."
I'm going to break all the rules, and put a substantial chunk of this article in this post (primarily so that I can reference it easily in the future).
...some Democrats are convinced he's going to beat President Bush in a landslide. Chuck Todd of The Hotline explains why: "Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent," he writes in The Washington Monthly. "In recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins." Since Mr. Todd thinks a Bush landslide is out of the question -- itself a premature assumption -- a Kerry landslide is all but inevitable...Anyway, past elections are of limited value in predicting future ones. As in sports, streaks and slumps in politics go on only until they end. We keep hearing that Ohio is a crucial state for President Bush because no Republican has ever won the presidency without it...
Mr. Bush was the first Republican since James Garfield in 1880 to win the White House without carrying California. That record would not have fallen had Al Gore received a few thousand more votes in Florida -- but in that case, Mr. Gore would have become the first Democrat ever elected without carrying Missouri...
As it was, the Show-Me State became the most durable bellwether in America, having last backed a loser, Adlai Stevenson, in 1956...
In the process, George W. Bush became the first Republican to win the presidency without carrying Delaware since Benjamin Harrison in 1888...
...Mr. Kerry would have to become the first president since Lincoln to win in November after being nominated at a convention in his home state.
He also would need to win the White House as a sitting member of Congress, something only three men have done: Rep. Garfield in 1880, Sen. Warren G. Harding in 1920 and Sen. John F. Kennedy in 1960. And here's a streak that might give Mr. Kerry pause: All three died in office...
Monroe had another achievement that Mr. Bush would like to duplicate: He was the last president to serve two full terms immediately following another two-term president.
For every theory there is a factoid. Mine starts with the fact that Dukakis was ahead by 17 points immediately after his convention...
Comments