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« Human Action vs. Human Design | Main | Getting Back On Track Here at vX »


Michael Stastny

"Mincerian Wage Equation"



What are the chances of Paul Krugman ?

Dave Tufte

After last year I think they might be quite good.

It was a big surprise (to me, at least) for them to jump over a bunch of deserving theorists from the early 70s into a second wave from the late 70s and early 80s. I was also surprised that they jumped over people who'd made fundamental contributions to a broader field to pick two people who made the initial conbtribution to a more focused field. That is precisely what Krugman did in trade, so if there is a voting philosophy moving in that direction, I'd say he's a lock in the next couple of years. Of course, he's a lock anyway, within 20 years.

Krugman's contribution is just immense. He's done a lot of work in a lot of areas, but what he is known for is (pretty much) single handedly inventing a new theory of why trade occurs. In short, that trade may give you access to a bigger market, thus allowing you to take more advantage of increasing returns to scale than you would otherwise. The only person that I know of who could make a similar claim is (the even younger) Paul Romer with new growth theory.

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